No More Shuffling the Deck: eVTOL Takes the Throne as Aviation's Ultimate Disruptor

Actual Innovation

eVTOL Air Taxis, or as they're known on CNN and FOX, flying Ubers, have been presented as the next big leap in urban travel. Quick, efficient, and nimble — creating a segment of untapped industry and customers. While most readers are likely familiar with these basic concepts on eVTOL, this will serve not only as an informative recap of sorts, but as a bigger indicator to the viability. Inside business aviation, we all have seen a few “deck shuffles” just to play the same old game. I have heard similar sentiment about eVTOL, and while I am largely skeptical of EV’s taking over the highway system anytime soon, I am very invested in the fact that eVTOL is innovation, highly probable to be successful on a reasonable timeline, and most of all - it fills a need of those who can afford it. You may say “more time” is a want, but to those who can afford traveling eVTOL when the time comes, more time is a need and they will pay for it. Even still, there are some hard truths to consider.

The Upsides:

Innovation Leap: We're not talking about pie-in-the-sky concepts. Modern eVTOL designs, paired with autonomous flight tech, are way ahead of anything we've seen before. If you’ve read Airplane Mode before, it’s not a matter of “if” autonomous flight decks are coming, but when. Send me a nasty gram if you like, I can only predict the future on this one because I can see the past. Technology typically solves these problems of manpower and human frailty and profiteering. I won’t be flying “Autonomous Air”… That’s all I am willing to say.

Timeline: With multiple heavy-hitters in the industry pushing out prototypes, commercial services could be a reality within a 5 to 10-year window. Anyone suggesting better timelines for commercial service is also a dreamer.

Efficiency: Imagine soaring over standstill traffic, going from downtown to the airport in minutes. That's a definite game-changer for those with “the need”. They have made their purpose in life to collapse the timeline on wealth, and/or free up their time in general.

Infrastructure: Initially, these airborne taxis would piggyback off existing helicopter landing pads and follow current aviation safety rules.

The Caveats:

Batteries: Rule #1 of battery powered vehicle club and a bright future? We don’t talk about batteries. The bane of any electric vehicles existence. Mining issues. Human rights issues. Scarcity, politics. The whole nine.

Safety & Noise: Not whisper-quiet, and they're flying over your head. Will be some adoption hurdles on this basis. Public sentiment could easily swing if safety and noise concerns aren't addressed.

Infrastructure Hurdles: We're talking about substantial investments in landing zones, charging stations, and the like. Don't underestimate the logistical nightmare.

Affordability: The term "taxi" might be a misnomer. Current pricing predictions say this won't be your average taxi fare.

Good and bad laid bare, It's essential to realize that this isn't a revolutionary, never-before-seen idea, as far as the actual logistical methodology and government oversight requirements. We've had charter services running short hops for years, all under the omniscient eye of the FAA (too far?). The physical tech may be new, but the concept and the regulatory hurdles, not at all. Also, given recent events, there will likely be far more scrutiny on business models (we can hope, but I am a dreamer) and may prevent some time lost on shaky foundations and non-starters that should have never started.

Innovation needs to meet practicality, and that’s where the smart money’s at - alongside, ahem, profitability…. Regulations and public opinion will play a significant role, and rightly so, per all aerospace decisions with substantial safety implications. The endgame? Air taxis could redefine urban mobility, but let's be realistic about the gauntlet they have to run first. Remember, as much as we all want to believe in the promise of futuristic travel, we've got to negotiate with reality. The road to airborne taxis is more of a winding path than a straight ascent.

Five Factors of a “Great Business”

Another One Based on The Oracle from his 2019 shareholder’s letter:

• Attractive returns on capital.

• High quality managers.

• Top notch culture.

• Financial Strength helping against external shocks.

• Enduring economic advantages.

Essentially Mr. Buffet is speaking in part to what Mr. Nassim Taleb has written an entire comprehensive work on, Anti-fragility. A prime example is the internet. When a server goes down the traffic is rerouted across different servers. It maintains it’s functionality and also allows for identifying weak points, thereby making it anti-fragile. Could be further said that aircraft redundant systems activating upon failure of primaries, and the subsequent inspections & improvements are anti-fragile as well. Become stronger despite the “shocks”, as opposed to just weathering the storm on a wish and a prayer.

The Art of the Echo - Negotiation Tactic 001

We're diving deep into the art of negotiation for the first time here, borrowing wisdom from the originator, Chris Voss - who is a former FBI Hostage Negotiator and often jokes they had a %93 success rate and they only sold prison and death. Ever heard of "Labels and Mirrors"? No, they're not items in your bathroom; they're potent tools (read: life changing, not kidding) to gain psychological leverage in any negotiation. (There needs to be a heartfelt and sincere disclaimer here: Using these tools for anything outside the realm of ethical is detestable, and most would agree that those who do so open themselves up to even worse consequences, sooner or later.)

Labels are verbal observations, a way to call out the elephant in the room, so to speak. By labeling your counterpart's emotions or intentions—think about phrases like "It seems like you're concerned about X"—you not only show empathy but also encourage them to open up. It demonstrates empathy, genuine empathy, tactically. We all want to be heard and understood. It's like holding up a mirror to their subconscious, which brings us to Mirrors.

Mirroring is the art of repeating the last few words your counterpart has said. Simple, yet incredibly effective. It prompts people to elaborate and, in doing so, reveal more than they initially intended. It's akin to giving them a nudge and saying, "Go on, I'm listening."

Combine these two techniques, and you've got yourself a partial toolbox that will likely leave you the same way it left me after first use “what? that worked? that’s incredible”. My marriage did get better. In all sincerity, with great power comes great responsibility. We will dive further down negotiation psychology land in the upcoming editions of Airplane Mode. Video below is more for now, and is definitely Signal > Noise.

Ace Update

Ace doesn’t need labels and mirrors because he doesn’t do much talking. You’ll never hear him coming. The strong, silent type, like Gary Cooper…

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