Operating with Certainty in Uncertain Times

This Week's Theme: Operating Despite Market Cycles & Uncertainty
Cycles and uncertainty drive economies and industries. Understanding that helps us predict opportunities and avoid problems, turning potential threats into opportunities for growth, and engineering our luck. Every single decision we make is an opportunity for growth. Let the cycles do what they may, and make decisions like you’re here to stay. “Luck is the residue of design” - John Milton.

Deep Dive: Certainty & Decisions

Tactical Wisdom you can take with you today, in the face of uncertainty - figure out how to consistently make better decisions. Make it a system you can rely on within yourself:

“The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

The OODA Loop is a four-step process for making effective decisions in high-stakes situations. It involves collecting relevant information, recognizing potential biases, deciding, and acting, then repeating the process with new information. Read on to learn how to use the OODA Loop.

When we want to learn how to make rational decisions under pressure, it can be helpful to look at the techniques people use in extreme situations. If they work in the most drastic scenarios, they have a good chance of being effective in more typical ones.

Because they’re developed and tested in the relentless laboratory of conflict, military mental models have practical applications far beyond….”

Methodology story continued on Farnam Street website, source link below:

From the Bookshelf:

"Mastering the Market Cycle" by Howard Marks

Why we’re reading: Surviving market cycles no matter the circumstances. This book will take you into the thick of it from one of “the most successful Wall Street Investors of all time.”

Quotable Corner:

“There Are Two Undefeated Players In History

Time: It has always passed.
Randomness: It is always present.

The More Detailed The Plan, The Higher The Probability of Bad Luck”

-Unknown Author

Why it matters: It's a poignant reminder of the power of adaptability and perspective, especially when navigating through life's various cycles.

Practical Wisdom:
Here's how to stay ahead:

1. Recapture and Reallocate: If you feel like you' don’t have enough of, or are losing (possibly hemorrhaging) time, currency, attention, energy - you need to recapture it, and allocate it where you do need it. Here’s how to do that, unlike you’ve ever seen:
   
   Source: "Recapture and Reallocate" Money - Basic (guardianacademy.io) 
   

2. Flexibility and Grit: Develop the resilience to pivot as needed and the perseverance to stay the course when the going gets tough. My Grandfather, Clyde Bernard Ross (Scottish), had a word - his word was “perseverance”. He preached it purposefully and frequently. He was well qualified to insist - but that’s a story for another edition.

It's about being proactive, not reactive.

Parting Thoughts:
Remember, cycles and volatility at large are a normal part of our economic and personal stories. See them as chances to grow and learn. If you have any thoughts, experiences, or strategies to share, I would be happy and grateful to listen.

Looking Ahead:
In our next edition, we'll explore "Making Your Own Luck": how to engineer the ways in which you can become more lucky. Except, instead of dogma, we are talking systems, science, and math!

Until then, stay frosty my friends.

Top Books of All Time List - Airplane Mode Edition

I'm making a list of the best books ever. It includes books about business, science, God, espionage, psychology, psycho-cybernetics, communication, teamwork, and other topics that seem disconnected but actually weave together quite nicely. These books have changed lives, including mine, and no matter which one you choose, it will be a good choice. I promise that the books are high-quality and I would love to talk about any of them. Reading makes you dangerous. I suspect if you’re here right now, you already know that 🙂

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Ace Update

Queue up Stephen Stills “Treetop Flyer”

“I’ll fly whiskey for ya, and I’ll fly guns…”

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